SIGNALS · FUTURES · EVIDENCE EXPLORER

Evidence Explorer

Data as of …

Each bar represents one evidence entry's contribution to the scenario's log-odds. Moss bars fill rightward (confirming); rust bars fill leftward (disconfirming). Heights scaled by |Δ logit|. Last 7 days at full opacity; older evidence dimmed.

X-axis: current scenario probability (P_now, 0→100%). Y-axis: 7-day momentum (Δ log-odds). Bubble size: total evidence count. Top-right = High & Rising; bottom-right = High & Falling.

Lines: each scenario's probability over time. Shaded band: ±1σ across last 5 sessions. Narrow band = stable; wide band = high session-to-session variance. Convergence = band shrinks over time. Dashed line = prior P₀ baseline.

Reading the chart

Flat line, shrinking band — True convergence. Probability settling; recent sessions aren't moving it. Evidence is consistent.

Moving line, widening band — Active divergence. New evidence shifting probability; sessions disagree. Scenario contested or evolving fast.

Flat line, narrow band, no new evidence — Possible exhaustion. Stability reflects absence of evidence, not resolution — the question is open but unexamined.

Oscillating line, persistently wide band — Genuine contest. Confirming and disconfirming evidence trading off session to session; σ stays elevated.

X-axis: coverage attention z-score (how much evidence this scenario receives relative to others). Y-axis: evidence weight z-score (total |Δ logit|). Top-left (Against the Grain) = strong weight, low attention — contrarian signals worth watching. Bubble size: current probability.